Week of August 3 - August 7, 2026
July NFP, ISM Services, and AMD/Disney/Palantir earnings drive a busy post-FOMC week.
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The first full trading week after the July 29 FOMC hold at 3.50-3.75% begins with Fed officials back on the speaking circuit -- the blackout lifted July 30, so any Warsh commentary on September 15-16 sets the agenda before a data point drops. ISM Manufacturing on Monday and ISM Services on Wednesday bookend the economic picture; services came in at a robust 54.0 in June for the 24th straight month of expansion, and any meaningful pullback would reopen the growth debate. Wednesday is the week's session of maximum density: ADP private payrolls, ISM Services PMI, and EIA crude oil inventories all print within two hours of each other, while Eli Lilly, Disney, Uber, and Shopify report pre-market. Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report is the centrepiece -- June's shocking +57K print (well below the +115K consensus) reset hike odds going into the FOMC, and the market needs to know whether July rebounds toward trend or confirms that the labour market is rolling over. On the earnings front, Palantir (AI government revenue), Caterpillar (industrial demand), AMD (AI silicon), and Disney (streaming under Iran-war consumer pressure) collectively span the AI infrastructure trade, the hard economy, and the discretionary consumer -- making this the last major data-and-earnings gauntlet before August trading thins.
Why It Matters This Week
China's export growth is a real-time read on global demand for manufactured goods -- particularly relevant given the ongoing US-China tariff regime and the impact of Middle East disruptions on shipping routes. Imports reveal the state of domestic Chinese demand, a critical signal for commodity markets. A weak imports number arriving on the same morning as US NFP would compound any risk-off mood.
China's General Administration of Customs monthly report on exports, imports, and the resulting trade surplus, released in early Asian trading and reported in US dollar terms.
Bullish Scenario
Exports beating and imports firm: global demand resilient, Chinese domestic economy recovering. Commodity complex and AUD get a lift.
Bearish Scenario
Export miss with weak imports: global trade slowing and China domestic demand soft. Risk-off tone, commodity proxies soften.
Why It Matters This Week
The Bank of Canada held rates steady at its July 29 meeting -- the same day as the Fed -- and the labour market is the primary input into whether the BoC stays on hold or resumes easing in September. Canada's export-heavy economy is also sensitive to US demand trends, so a weak Canadian jobs print arriving alongside US NFP would be a double-negative for CAD and would reinforce any dovish read on North American labour markets broadly.
Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey for July 2026, measuring net employment change, the unemployment rate, and full-time vs. part-time job creation -- Canada's equivalent of the US nonfarm payrolls report, released at 8:30am ET.
If Higher Than Expected
Above +50K with unemployment steady: BoC on hold narrative reinforced. CAD firms, oil-correlated assets get a mild lift.
If Lower Than Expected
Below 0 or unemployment above 6.9%: labour market deteriorating. CAD weakens, BoC September cut bets firm, oil softens.
Why It Matters This Week
June's +57K print was one of the softest readings since the 2020 pandemic shock, arriving well below the +115K consensus and immediately cutting Fed hike odds -- a key input into the July 29 FOMC hold. The July number decides whether June was a one-month weather or seasonal anomaly or the start of sustained labour-market cooling that would shift the September 15-16 FOMC from a hawkish hold toward a possible cut. Average hourly earnings are the secondary focus: if wages stay at +0.3% MoM even as hiring slows, the wage-price channel is narrowing in the Fed's favour; a drop to +0.1-0.2% would make a September cut explicitly live.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report, covering July's net payroll change across all non-farm sectors, the unemployment rate, labour force participation, and average hourly earnings growth -- the single most market-moving monthly data release in the US.
If Higher Than Expected
Above +175K with unemployment at 4.1%: June was noise, labour market re-accelerating. USD spikes, gold sells off, September hike bets re-emerge, stocks whipsaw on hawkish repricing.
If Lower Than Expected
Below +75K or unemployment above 4.4%: labour deterioration confirmed. Gold rallies strongly, USD drops, September cut fully priced, equities catch a relief bid on rate-cut hopes.
Next week
August 10 - August 14, 2026July CPI and PPI headline a lighter data week as markets digest the NFP verdict. Full analysis lands with the weekly update.
Past weeks
This calendar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Event times, forecasts, and analysis are based on publicly available data and may change. Always verify with official sources before making trading decisions.