Week of June 30 - July 4, 2026
June NFP and ISM manufacturing headlined a holiday-shortened H1 close.
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The final week of H1 2026 delivered the June nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday July 3 (moved from Friday because of the Independence Day holiday), alongside ISM manufacturing PMI and thin liquidity into the long weekend. Soft June hiring at 57K versus ~115K expected reset Fed hike odds and set the tone for July's FOMC minutes focus.
Why It Matters This Week
June's miss broke the hot-labor narrative and trimmed 2026 hike odds ahead of Warsh's July minutes.
BLS Employment Situation report: net payroll change, unemployment rate, and wage growth.
Came in below forecast. The lower-than-expected scenario below is in play.
If Higher Than Expected
Above +150K: labor resilience; USD firms, gold softens, cuts priced out.
If Lower Than ExpectedIN PLAY
Below +75K: cooling labor market; gold rallies, USD softens, cut bets return.
This calendar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Event times, forecasts, and analysis are based on publicly available data and may change. Always verify with official sources before making trading decisions.